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Nov 09

The Market Today

11/8/12

The day started positive, but the rally did not hold. In fact, it was dead within the first half hour of trading. The downside was gradual, throughout the day. The market leader, Apple, continued it’s decline, bringing the market down with it. The S&P closed below the important 200 day moving average, which is at 1380, at 1377. If the bulls do not take a stand here, it is clear the trend is now down. Outside of oversold rally, I do not see any positive catalyst’s. The situation in Europe is getting worse. Mario Draghi, the ECB President, mentioned that the slow down in Europe is finally having an impact on Germany. Should Germany slow down significantly, this does not bode well for markets worldwide. On this side of the pond, the Fiscal Cliff is the main issue. Both of these will be the main headlines for the foreseeable future. The earnings picture has not been great either. In fact, McDonald’s posted lower same store sales for the first time in 9 years! Unfortunately, the picture is getting bleaker. Going back to a catalyst, the only positive one that could change things, at least for the short term, is if Government pulls together, and works together, and works it out prior to December 31. Should this happen, a major rally would ensue. Again, I do not see this happening, but you should alway’s be prepared. Let’s see if the bulls put up a fight, since it closed below the 200 day moving average. If the bulls decide not to put up a fight, more downside is on it’s way. Stay tuned….

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